Latest MBA forecast raises 2022 origination outlook by 1%

Latest MBA forecast raises 2022 origination outlook by 1%
Written by Publishing Team

The Mortgage Bankers Association boosted its forecast for mortgage creation for 2022 by 1% in December from the previous month, raising its forecast for buying and refinancing activity.

While the forecast for 2021 is unchanged from November, it is 2% higher than what the organization’s economic forecasts announced at the time Annual conference in October.

The latest forecast for this year calls for $3.93 trillion in mortgage facilities, with 59%, $2.32 trillion, coming from refinancing — the third best year on record after an all-time high of $2.63 trillion in 2020 — as well as a record purchase of $1.61 trillion. Activity. In October, MBAs forecast $3.85 trillion, totaling $2.26 trillion and purchases $1.59 trillion.

The volume this year will be 4% lower compared to $4.1 trillion in 2020. The organization is going in a different direction than Fannie Mae, December forecast It calls for a new record for this year of $4.45 trillion, up from $4.37 trillion in 2020.

For 2022, MBAs now claim $2.61 trillion in builds, with another record purchase year of $1.74 trillion. But rehabilitation activity will drop more than 62% this year to $870 billion. November’s forecast was $2.59 trillion for 2022 production, with $1.73 trillion in purchases and $860 billion from recycling.

The MBA did not change its forecast for 2023 and 2024 of approximately $2.53 trillion in assets each year. The organization expects another record year for purchase volume in 2023 of $1.85 trillion.

For the next year, MBA expects it home Price growth will moderate to 5.1% from 16.1% this year and 10.9% in 2020. Going forward, price hikes should slow further to 4.1% in 2023, before speeding back up again in 2024 to 5.4%.

Mortgage rates are expected to rise throughout the year, reaching 4.0% by December 2022; Rates will end this year at 3.1%.

Economic growth is expected to reach 4% in 2022, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.5% by the end of the year, the MBA said.


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