Mortgage rates and refinancing today
Yesterday average mortgage rates fell by a meaningful amount. But they still have a long way to go to regain the ground they have lost so far this year. However, they remain at levels that were unimaginably low before the pandemic.
Once again, the markets are pointing out Mortgage rates today may remain stable or move with difficulty. But we’ve seen in recent days how inaccurate these early signs can be.
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Current Mortgage and Refinancing Rates
|a program||Mortgage rate||April *||change|
|Traditional fixed for 30 years||3,644%||3.666%||-0.04%|
|Fixed traditional for 15 years||2.955%||2.992%||-0.01%|
|Fixed 20 year old||3.347%||3.383%||-0.04%|
|Conventional fixed for 10 years||2.936%||3.009%||-0.01%|
|30 Years Fixed FHA||3.675%||4.448%||-0.02%|
|15 Years FHA Fixed||2.932%||3.582%||-0.06%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.821%||3.469%||without change|
|30 years constant VA||3.452%||3.648%||+ 0.01%|
|15 years constant VA||3.238%||3.589%||without change|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.705%||2.718%||-0.07%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your evaluation may be different. Click here for a personal price quote. See our defaults rate here.|
Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate Today?
I still think that the last two days of falling were just a snapshot and not the start of a longer downtrend. Of course, I could be wrong. But I expect mortgage rates to rise slowly for some time to come.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain as follows:
- a lock If closed in 7 days
- a lock If closed in 15 days
- a lock If closed in 30 days
- a lock If closed in 45 days
- a lock If closed in 60 days
> Related: 7 Tips for Getting the Best Refinance Rate
Market data affecting mortgage rates today
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, was:
- the The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds It settled at 1.74%. (Neutral to Mortgage Rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these specific Treasury yields
- major stock indices were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those stocks and increases returns and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when the indicators are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- oil prices It rose to $82.64 from $82.16 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
- gold prices It fell to $1,821 from $1,824 an ounce. (Neutral to Mortgage Rates*.) In general, rates are better when gold is rising, and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. Concerned investors tend to cut interest rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Decreased to 62 from 66 from 100. (Good Mortgage Rates.) ‘greedy’ investors push bond prices down (and interest rates go up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while ‘scared’ investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. So we only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above numbers and guess well what will happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. Usually they are right. But our accuracy record won’t hit the previous highs until things settle down.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak to count on. But with that caveat, Mortgage rates today are likely to remain unchanged or nearly unchanged. However, you should be aware that “intraday volatility” (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature at the moment.
Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 13, 2022)
Important notes about mortgage rates today
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
- Only “first-class” borrowers (with excellent credit scores, great down payments, and very healthy financing) get the very low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders differ. You may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price tags as is
- Refinancing rates are usually close to purchase rates.
A lot is happening right now. No one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are Mortgage and Refinancing Rates Going Up or Down?
Mortgage rates have risen sharply so far this year, and only two days of recent declines have abated. I expect them to continue rising at a more steady pace.
Of course, there will still be inevitable periods of falls. But I think the primary trend will be bullish.
I was saying that inflation is one of the main drivers of rising mortgage rates. However, when the Consumer Price Index was released yesterday and showed inflation rising at the highest rate since 1982, those rates actually fell. There was an echo this morning when the markets ignored the higher PPI numbers. So how do these numbers not produce a sharper response?
Well, this is mainly due to investors’ belief that these high inflation rates are likely to force the Federal Reserve to accelerate its anti-inflationary policies. And that could mean more rate hikes this year: maybe three or four, starting in March.
CNN Business reported this morning that a strategist at Bank of America had told it, “…prices could be 1 [percentage point] higher or higher by the end of the year.”
Raising interest rates may curb inflation, but it is also likely to hurt the economic recovery. This is unpopular with investors.
Why inflation will eventually push mortgage rates higher.
Mortgage rates are largely determined by the trading of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). An MBS is a type of fixed income bond.
Let’s say that today you can buy MBS which gives you an annual income (“yield”) of 2%. With inflation rising to 7% annually, you are guaranteed a real loss.
Of course, people will still buy MBS (and Treasuries) because it’s safe. In the event of a relatively risky stock market crash (unlikely but not unthinkable), your bond investments could be all that stands between you and ruin.
And safe haven money isn’t necessarily the most attractive investment. It’s a bit like the old joke about two friends wandering in the woods when a bear charges them. You don’t have to outrun the bear. You just have to outpace your friend.
Likewise, Mohammed bin Salman does not have to outperform all markets. They just have to be more attractive than similar safe investments. That’s why there are still those taking negative interest rates in parts of Europe.
For a longer overview of the drivers of mortgage rates, including why markets are so optimistic about Omicron, read the weekend’s edition of this daily rate report.
Recently – Updated today
For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly bearish. A new weekly low ever was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly drop occurred on January 7, when it settled at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with long periods of highs and lows. Unfortunately, since September, the heights have increased further, although not consistently.
Freddy January 13 The report places the weekly average of 30-year mortgages, with a flat rate of 3.45% (with fees and points of 0.7), above from 3.22% the previous week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing sector and mortgage rates.
Here are their forecasts for the current rates for the current remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s published on December 20 and MBA on December 21.
Freddie’s was released on October 15. He now only updates his forecast every three months. So we may not get another one until later this month. And its numbers are already outdated.
|Predictor||Q 4/21||x 1/22||Q 2/22||Q3/22|
|Master of Business Administration||3.1%||3.3%||3.5%||3.7%|
However, because there are many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
You should compare shopping broadly, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping for a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but Saving up to a quarter of an interest point on your mortgage can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. “
Check the new price (13 Jan 2022)
Mortgage Rate Methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on specific criteria from multiple lending partners every day. We came up with the average APR and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Since we categorize a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. Moreover, we make average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.