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Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Jan. 19| Rates steady-ish

Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Jan. 19| Rates steady-ish
Written by Publishing Team

Mortgage rates and refinancing today

Yesterday average mortgage rates rose moderately. Just over a year ago, those rates hit an all-time low: 2.65%. But they are now closer to 4% from 3%. However, this is still notably low by historical standards.

Finally, it will most likely be Mortgage rates today will stay flat or fall instead of an increase. But I suspect this will be a short, shallow dip before more rallies happen.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 19, 2022)

Current Mortgage and Refinancing Rates

a program Mortgage rate April * change
Traditional fixed for 30 years 3.87% 3.891% + 0.14%
Fixed traditional for 15 years 3.192% 3.23% + 0.12%
Fixed 20 year old 3.72% 3.753% + 0.24%
Conventional fixed for 10 years 3.14% 3.215% + 0.13%
30 Years Fixed FHA 3.91% 4.689% + 0.13%
15 Years FHA Fixed 3.137% 3.751% + 0.02%
5/1 ARM FHA 3.731% 3.961% + 0.06%
30 years constant VA 3.946% 4.156% + 0.31%
15 years constant VA 3.342% 3.684% + 0.11%
5/1 ARM VA 3.412% 2.999% + 0.13%
Prices are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your evaluation may be different. Click here for a personal price quote. See our defaults rate here.

Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate Today?

The past month has been awful for mortgage rates. And I see few signs that things will improve, at least in a sustainable and worthwhile way. In fact, I think it would take a disastrous event to change their direction.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain as follows:

  • a lock If closed in 7 days
  • a lock If closed in 15 days
  • a lock If closed in 30 days
  • a lock If closed in 45 days
  • a lock If closed in 60 days

> Related: 7 Tips for Getting the Best Refinance Rate

Market data affecting mortgage rates today

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, was:

  • the The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds It rose to 1.85% from 1.83%. (Bad For Mortgage Rates.) But this yield was declining first. Typically, more than any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these specific Treasury yields
  • major stock indices She was modest higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those stocks and increases returns and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when the indicators are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • oil prices It jumped to $86.60 from $84.85 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a big role In creating inflation and also indicating future economic activity
  • gold prices It rose to $1827 from $1813 an ounce. (Neutral to Mortgage Rates*.) In general, rates are better when gold is rising, and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. Concerned investors tend to cut interest rates
  • CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Increased to 68 from 53 from 100. (Bad For Mortgage Rates.) ‘greedy’ investors Pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and head toward stocks, while “scared” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. So we only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above numbers and guess well what will happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. Usually they are right. But our accuracy record won’t hit the previous highs until things settle down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak to count on. But with that caveat, Mortgage rates today are likely to remain flat or decline modestly. However, you should be aware that “intraday volatility” (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature at the moment.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 19, 2022)

Important notes about mortgage rates today

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
  2. Only “first-class” borrowers (with excellent credit scores, great down payments, and very healthy financing) get the very low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  3. Lenders differ. You may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price tags as is
  5. Refinancing rates are usually close to purchase rates.

A lot is happening right now. No one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are Mortgage and Refinancing Rates Going Up or Down?

Once again, CNBC this morning attributed the rise in bond yields (and thus mortgage rates) to “investors’ growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon start raising interest rates.”

Yes I know. The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly. Their levels mostly come down to trading in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), a type of bond.

But the Fed’s plans are certainly affecting the bond markets. And at the moment, they affect them significantly.

Yes, it is possible that the Federal Reserve will act less aggressively. The Financial Times (paywall) this morning asked a question for all central bankers (our Fed), “Would policy makers dare withdraw stimulus and raise interest rates if there is a risk of an asset price explosion?” (Payment wall).

Certainly, the Fed has to go down a tough path as it reins in inflation – while at the same time not killing the economic recovery by raising rates too quickly. Perhaps one day she will need to lighten her heights.

bad look

But that’s not likely to be any time soon. And certainly not before you have to lock in your price.

So, as far as I can tell, it looks like we’re facing higher mortgage rates for some time to come. Of course, the highs will inevitably be wiped out by intermittent periods of modest lows – we’ll probably see one today.

But, in my view, the future for these rates now looks bleak. And only something massive and horrific (a new deadly type of COVID-19, a dangerous war in which the United States is involved, a stock market crash, a massive natural disaster…) is likely to lead to a sharp decline for a long time.

For a longer overview of the drivers of mortgage rates, including why markets are so optimistic about Omicron, read the weekend’s edition of this daily rate report.


For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly bearish. A new weekly low ever was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly drop occurred on January 7, when it settled at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with long periods of highs and lows. Unfortunately, since September, the heights have increased further, although not consistently.

Freddy January 13 The report places the weekly average of 30-year mortgages, with a flat rate of 3.45% (with fees and points of 0.7), above from 3.22% the previous week.

Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their forecasts for the current rates for the current remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s published on December 20 and MBA on December 21.

Freddie’s was released on October 15. He now only updates his forecast every three months. So we may not get another one until later this month. And its numbers are already outdated.

Predictor Q 4/21 x 1/22 Q 2/22 Q3/22
Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3%
Freddy Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
Master of Business Administration 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, because there are many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should compare shopping broadly, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping for a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but Saving up to a quarter of an interest point on your mortgage can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. “

Check the new price (Jan 19, 2022)

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on specific criteria from multiple lending partners every day. We came up with the average APR and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Since we categorize a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. Moreover, we make average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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