Mortgage

Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Jan. 21| Rates falling

Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Jan. 21| Rates falling
Written by Publishing Team

Mortgage rates and refinancing today

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday but only by the lowest amount that can be measured. Of course, these rates are high by modern standards. But it is still very low by historical.

looks as if Today’s mortgage rates may drop again, maybe moderately. That’s because investors are looking forward to a major meeting of the Federal Reserve next week. But, as always, markets may change as the day progresses.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 21, 2022)

Current Mortgage and Refinancing Rates

a program Mortgage rate April * change
Traditional fixed for 30 years 3.789% 3.812% -0.05%
Fixed traditional for 15 years 3.137% 3.174% + 0.01%
Fixed 20 year old 3.52% 3.558% -0.05%
Conventional fixed for 10 years 3.047% 3.115% -0.03%
30 Years Fixed FHA 3.856% 4.633% -0.04%
15 Years FHA Fixed 3.132% 3.784% -0.01%
5/1 ARM FHA 3.652% 3.973% -0.01%
30 years constant VA 3.889% 4.096% -0.02%
15 years constant VA 3.282% 3.623% without change
5/1 ARM VA 3.189% 2.967% without change
Prices are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your evaluation may be different. Click here for a personal price quote. See our defaults rate here.

Should You Lock Your Mortgage Rate Today?

The past two days have come as a relief after a period of steady rise in mortgage rates. With luck, we may see a moderate pullback today.

But you should probably assume that these rates are currently stabilizing. And that they still have more upside – although we hope the regression will be lower than before.

This sums up what I expect. Of course, I may be proven wrong. But it will likely take a major event for them to fall in a sustainable manner. So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain as follows:

  • a lock If closed in 7 days
  • a lock If closed in 15 days
  • a lock If closed in 30 days
  • a lock If closed in 45 days
  • a lock If closed in 60 days

> Related: 7 Tips for Getting the Best Refinance Rate

Market data affecting mortgage rates today

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, was:

  • the The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds It fell to 1.76% from 1.83%. (Good Mortgage Rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these specific Treasury yields
  • major stock indices It was mostly lower. (Good for mortgage rates.When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those stocks and increases returns and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when the indicators are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • oil prices It fell to $84.69 from $86.71 a barrel. (Good Mortgage Rates*.) Energy prices play a big role In creating inflation and also indicating future economic activity
  • gold prices It fell to $1,842 from $1,846 an ounce. (Neutral to Mortgage Rates*.) In general, rates are better when gold is rising, and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. Concerned investors tend to cut interest rates
  • CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Decreased to 48 from 57 out of 100. (Good Mortgage Rates.) ‘greedy’ investors Pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and head toward stocks, while “scared” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. So we only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above numbers and guess well what will happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. Usually they are right. But our accuracy record won’t hit the previous highs until things settle down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak to count on. But with that caveat, Today’s mortgage rates are likely to fall. However, you should be aware that “intraday volatility” (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature at the moment.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 21, 2022)

Important notes about mortgage rates today

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
  2. Only “first-class” borrowers (with excellent credit scores, great down payments, and very healthy financing) get the very low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  3. Lenders differ. You may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price tags as is
  5. Refinancing rates are usually close to purchase rates.

A lot is happening right now. No one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are Mortgage and Refinancing Rates Going Up or Down?

The spikes of the past 30 days or so have abated. But rates are still likely to end higher this week than in the past.

And the drivers of recent gains are still strong:

  • The Federal Reserve early dismantled pandemic-era stimulus programs. We expect more news next Wednesday (January 26th) following the next MPC meeting
  • Uncomfortably high inflation
  • Optimism about the COVID-19 pandemic
  • A sustained and robust economic recovery – albeit incomplete –

Each of these puts upward pressure on mortgage rates. There is little sign of any of them changing. That’s why I’m reasonably confident that these rates will rise higher, although perhaps slower than they have recently.

But the future is never certain. It is always possible for an Earth-disturbing event to change everything. Let’s hope that remains unlikely.

For a longer overview of the drivers of mortgage rates, including why markets are so optimistic about Omicron, read the weekend’s edition of this daily rate report.

Recently

For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly bearish. A new weekly low ever was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly drop occurred on January 7, when it settled at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with long periods of highs and lows. Unfortunately, since September, the heights have increased further, although not consistently.

Freddy January 20 The report puts this weekly rate for 30-year mortgages, at a flat rate of 3.56% (with fees and points of 0.7), above from 3.45% in the previous week.

Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their forecasts for the current rates for the current remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s was published on January 19 and MBA on December 21.

Freddie’s was released on October 15. He now only updates his forecast every three months. So we may not get another one until later this month. And its numbers are already outdated.

Predictor Q 4/21 x 1/22 Q 2/22 Q3/22
Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%
Freddy Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
Master of Business Administration 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae slightly increased its price forecast in January. It believes that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 3.2% in the current quarter. But the day its numbers were published, we reported it had already reached 3.87%.

Do Fannie economists expect these rates to fall in February or March and remain low in the following quarters? If so, they know something I don’t.

Of course, given so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should compare shopping broadly, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping for a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but Saving up to a quarter of an interest point on your mortgage can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. “

Check the new price (21 Jan 2022)

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on specific criteria from multiple lending partners every day. We came up with the average APR and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Since we categorize a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. Moreover, we make average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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